Posted at 24 January 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
•US Redbook (YoY) 4.6% ,5.0% previous
•US Jan S&P Global Composite PMI 4.6%45.0 previous
•US Jan Services PMI 46.6, 45.0 forecast, 44.7, previous
•US Jan Manufacturing PMI 46.8, 46.0 forecast,46.2 previous
•US Jan Richmond Services Index-6, -12 previous
• US Jan Richmond Manufacturing Index -11, -5 forecast,1 previous
• US Jan Richmond Manufacturing Shipments-3, 5 previous
• US 52-Week Bill Auction 4.470%, 4.515% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic data (GMT)
•00:30 Australia Weighted mean CPI (YoY) (Q4) 5.5% forecast,5.0% previous
•00:30 Australia Trimmed Mean CPI (YoY) (Q4) 6.5% forecast, 6.1% previous
•00:30 Australia Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) (Q4) 1.5% forecast, 1.8% previous
•00:30 Australia Weighted mean CPI (QoQ) (Q4) 1.4% forecast,1.4% previous
•00:30 Australia CPI (QoQ) (Q4) 1.6% forecast,1.8% previous
•00:30 Australia CPI Index Number (Q4) 128.40 previous
•00:30 Australia CPI (YoY) (Q4) 7.5% forecast,7.3% previous
•05:00 Japan Leading Index 97.6 previous
•05:00 Japan Dec Coincident Indicator (MoM) -1.2% previous
•05:00 Japan Dec Leading Index (MoM) 0.4% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
•No events ahead
EUR/USD: The euro held at a nine-month high against the dollar on Tuesday after data showed euro zone business activity made a surprise return to modest growth in January. Surveys showed euro zone business activity made a surprise return to modest growth in January, and service-sector activity in Germany expanded for the first time since June, although price pressures remained sticky. The euro was 0.09 % higher at $ 1.0881 , just shy of the 9-month high of $ 1.0927 touched on Monday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0933(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0993 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0842(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0781(18th Jan low).
GBP/USD: Sterling fell against dollar on Tuesday after data showed economic activity weakened further in January, underlining the risk that Britain could slip into a recession in 2023. Private-sector economic activity fell at its fastest rate in two years in January, the S&P Global/CIPS flash composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey showed, as businesses blamed higher Bank of England interest rates, strikes and weak consumer demand for the slowdown. The pound was the worst performer in the G10 and was last down 0.50% against the dollar at $1.2325.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2421(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2512(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2302(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2257 (Jan 18th low).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar was little changed against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday as oil prices fell and investors awaited a Bank of Canada interest rate decision this week. The price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, was pressured by concerns about a global economic slowdown and an expected build in U.S. oil inventories. Canada’s central bank will hike its key interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 4.5% on Wednesday and then hit pause on an aggressive tightening campaign, according to poll of economists.The loonie was trading nearly unchanged at 1.3370 to the greenback, after moving in a range of 1.3347 to 1.3413.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3386 (5 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3438 (38.2% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3336 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3280 (23.6% fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against yen on Tuesday as the dollar's retreated amid expectations for a less-aggressive interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve. Traders are pricing in a 98% chance that the central bank will raise rates by 25 basis points (bps) next month, after slowing its pace to 50 bps last month, following four straight 75-bp hikes . Investors will be scanning the U.S. fourth quarter GDP growth estimates on Thursday and U.S. personal spending data on Friday, before the Jan. 31-Feb. 1 policy meeting. Strong resistance can be seen at 130.81(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 132.00 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 129.63 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 128.98 (9DMA).
European stocks fell on Tuesday as an improvement in economic activity in the euro zone spurred speculation the European Central Bank (ECB) might have more room to raise interest rates to tackle inflation.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.35 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.07 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0. 26 percent.
The S&P 500 ended nominally lower on Tuesday at the close of a rocky session marked by a raft of mixed earnings and a technical malfunction at the opening bell.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.31 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 0.07 percent, Nasdaq finished the day down by 0.27 percent.
U.S. Treasury yields were mostly lower in choppy trading on Tuesday, as investors looked to next week's Federal Reserve policy meeting that is widely expected to deliver a smaller 25 basis-point rate increase.
In late morning trading, the yield on 10-year Treasury notes was down 1.5 bps at 3.508%.
Gold prices pulled back from a nine-month high on Tuesday due to a slight uptick in the dollar and U.S. bond yields, although hopes of slower interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve underpinned the market.
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $1,934.82 per ounce by 1:40 p.m. ET (1840 GMT), hitting its highest since late April 2022 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures settled up 0.4% at $1,935.4.
Crude oil prices slipped on Tuesday on concerns about a global economic slowdown and as preliminary data indicated a bigger than expected build in U.S. oil inventories.
Brent futures for March delivery fell $2.06, or 2.3%, to $86.13 a barrel. U.S. crude fell $1.49, or 1.8%, to $80.13 per barrel.