Europe Roundup: Euro edges higher as dollar slips ahead of U.S. jobs data, European shares fall, Gold little changed, Oil steadies as market eyes China recovery and EU embargo-February 3rd,2023

Posted at 03 February 2023 / Categories Market Roundups

Market Roundup

•Italian Jan Services PMI  51.2,51.0 forecast,49.9  previous

•Italian Jan Composite PMI  51.2,49.6 previous

•French Jan Services PMI  49.4,49.2 forecast,49.5 previous

•French Jan S&P Global Composite PMI 49.1,49.0 forecast,49.1 previous

•German Jan Composite PMI  49.9,49.7 forecast,49.0 previous

•German Jan Services PMI 50.7,               50.4 forecast, 49.2 previous

•EU Jan Services PMI  50.8,50.7 forecast,49.8 previous

• EU Jan S&P Global Composite PMI  50.3,50.2 forecast,49.3 previous

•UK Jan Composite PMI  48.5,47.8 forecast,49.0 previous

• UK Jan Services PMI  48.7,48.0                forecast,49.9 previous

• EU Dec PPI (MoM)  1.1%,-0.4% forecast,-0.9% previous

• EU Dec PPI (YoY)  24.6%,22.5% forecast,27.1% previous

Looking Ahead - Economic data (GMT)

•13:30  US Jan Manufacturing Payrolls  6K forecast,8K previous

•13:30  US Jan Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)   0.3% forecast,0.3% previous

•13:30   US Jan U6 Unemployment Rate  6.5% previous

•13:30   US Payrolls Benchmark, n.s.a.  462.00K previous

•13:30   US Jan Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY)  4.3% forecast,4.6% previous

•13:30  US US  Participation Rate  62.3% previous

•13:30  US Payrolls Benchmark 374.00 previous

•13:30  US Jan Unemployment Rate   3.6% forecast,3.5% previous

•13:30  US Jan Average Weekly Hours  34.3 forecast,34.3 previous

•13:30 US Jan Nonfarm Payrolls  185K   forecast,223K previous

•13:30  US Jan Private Nonfarm Payrolls 190K forecast, 220K previous

•13:30  US Jan Government Payrolls  3.0K previous

•14:45  US Jan  S&P Global Composite PMI 46.6 forecast,45.0 previous

•14:45  US Jan Services PMI  46.6 forecast,44.7 previous

•15:00  US Jan ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders  45.2 previous

•15:00  US  Jan ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment  49.8 previous

•15:00  US Jan ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices 67.6 previous

•15:00  US Jan ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity  54.5 forecast,   54.7 previous

•15:00   US Jan ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI  50.4 forecast,49.6 previous

•18:00   U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 771 previous

•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 609 previous

Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)

•No significant events


EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against the dollar on Friday reversing part of the previous day's   tumble when investors found a dovish message from the European Central Bank's 50 basis point rate increase. The ECB raised rates by 50 bps on Thursday but, even though President Christine Lagarde explicitly signalled at least one more hike of the same magnitude next month, and reaffirmed the central bank would  stay the course  in the fight against high inflation, euro gained as investors reacted to hopes that rate increases were close to their end. The euro was last up 0.17% to $1.093, remaining far above September's 20-year low of $0.953.  Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1000 (Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1035 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0888(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards  1.0855(38.2%fib).

GBP/USD: The British pound edged against dollar on Friday as investors debated if the BoE will opt for another quarter basis point move next month. The BoE on Thursday delivered its 10th straight interest rate hike, raising the key interest rate by 50 basis points to 4%  its highest since 2008.However, comments from Governor Andrew Bailey that inflation may have "turned a corner" signalled that Britain's central bank may be close to bringing its tightening cycle to an end. Against the dollar, the pound   strengthened 0.2% to $1.2253, recovering from an over three-week low hit earlier in the session.On the week, the British currency is set to weaken about 1.2% against greenback.  Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2309(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2412(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2184(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2067(38.2%fib).

USD/CHF: The dollar little changed against the Swiss franc on Friday as trading was relatively subdued as markets waited for the latest U.S. employment data later in the day which may shift U.S. Federal Reserve policy.  U.S. job growth likely remained strong in January, with economists polled by Reuters expecting 185,000 new jobs created. Hourly wages are predicted to have risen by 0.3% from the month before .The dollar index , which tracks the currency against major peers, was down 0.22% to 101.57 on Friday. Swiss franc was 0.2% higher against the dollar at 0.9132 per dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9151(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9184(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9065(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9000 (Psychological level).

USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against yen on Thursday as investors positioned for a key U.S. non-farm payrolls report. The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Wednesday raised interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%, a softer approach than the previous increase of 50 bps.The slowdown in the pace, and comments from the central bank, helped send the dollar tumbling. Investors now await the U.S. non-farm payrolls report for January, which is expected to show 185,000 more jobs last month after a rise of 223,000 in December, according to survey of economists. Strong resistance can be seen at 129.63(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 130.60 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 128.23(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 127.04 (Lower BB).

Equities Recap

European shares fell on Friday, weighed down by losses in technology stocks after disappointing earnings overnight by their major U.S. counterparts rekindled concerns about global economic demand and the impact of high interest rates.

At (GMT 13:11),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.43 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.40 percent, France’s CAC   was up  by 0.07percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold traded in a tight range on Friday as cautious investors took stock of a host of central bank statements and positioned for a key U.S. non-farm payrolls report.

Having lost nearly 2% in the previous session, spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,913.99 an ounce at 1155 GMT. U.S. gold futures were down 0.3% at $1,925.60.

Oil prices steadied on Friday but were on track for a second week of losses as the market awaited further signs of fuel demand recovery in China and the impact of an EU embargo and price cap on Russian oil products.

Brent crude futures fell 18 cents, or 0.2%, to $81.99 a barrel by 1043 GMT, having dropped by about 1% in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures slipped by 14 cents, or 0.2%, to $75.74.

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